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It's as simple as that.
   

Kurt Laitner | My Amplify

Things I Amplify from the web

The wealth gap, solution proposal

"The winning strategy for the mega-rich is a policy switch from accumulation to a new game of creating a world where wealth can retain meaning"

In fact the way forward, for reasons described in this short article (political impotence, control by the wealthy), is in fact changing the meaning of wealth, rendering existing wealth gradually obsolete, thereby redistributing 'wealth'.

The current extraction-concentration game cannot persist long, so it is imperative we find a healthy transitio... more
URL:  www.wiserearth.org

Coase nobel laureate lecture

Still relevant so many years later, even as transaction costs can be reduced to near zero, understanding the dynamics and the importance of avoidance of transaction costs is central. The problem of studying institutions is also central, in particular understanding the nature of the value institutional forms add and whether this is efficient. While the transaction costs of the open market have adjusted over time, the comparison has not accounted for the changes and we continue to assume institutions are necessary. This assumption is worth revisiting. Can we retain the reduced transaction costs associated with institutions by Coase, but rid ourselves of the institution? Can we moreover create fluid concretizations as necessary to avoid the excesses of institutions? I agree that contracts are worthy of study for the value exchanges they describe. I also agree that context matters, as in Coase's example of a market allowing efficient trading in near perfect competition. This context is nothing more than a ruleset. Contracts are nothing more than enforceable rulesets. Can we take contracts (in general) and standardize them? In the same way standardized derivatives now trade freely, could we trade in all contracts? Can we in fact, encode all value exchanges in a common standardized model to allow for an ever increasing contextual scope, then get on with trading in near perfect competition on all value dimensions? I believe the answer is yes, and I call it *net.

Amplifyd from nobelprize.org
During the two centuries since the publication of
The Wealth of Nations the main activity of economists, it seems to me, has been to fill the gaps in Adam Smith's system, to correct his errors and to make his analysis vastly more exact.
A principal theme of
The Wealth of Nations was that government regulation or centralised planning were not necessary to make an economic system function in an orderly way.
Harold Demsetz has said rightly that what this theory analyses is a system of extreme decentralization.
"
It suggests that from the point of view of the economist 'organisation' is a matter of internal industrial (or agricultural) arrangement - if not internal to the firm, at any rate internal to 'the' industry. At the same time it tends to leave out completely the governing factor of all productive organisation - the relationship of prices and cost..."
2. What this comes down to is that, in Robbins' view, an economist does not interest himself in the internal arrangements within organisations but only in what happens on the market, the purchase of factors of production and the sale of the goods that these factors produce. What happens in between the purchase of the factors of production and the sale of the goods that are produced by these factors is largely ignored.
The firm and the market appear by name but they lack any substance. The firm in mainstream economic theory has often been described as a "black box". And so it is. This is very extraordinary given that most resources in a modern economic system are employed within firms, with how these resources are used dependent on administrative decisions and not directly on the operation of a market.
If we knew more about our own economy we would be in a better position to advise them.
The view of the pricing system as a co-ordinating mechanism was clearly right but there were aspects of the argument which troubled me. Plant was opposed to all schemes, then very fashionable during the Great Depression, for the co-ordination of industrial production by some form of planning. Competition, according to Plant, acting through a system of prices, would do all the co-ordination necessary. And yet we had a factor of production, management, whose function was to co-ordinate. Why was it needed if the pricing system provided all the co-ordination necessary?
I found the answer by the summer of 1932. It was to realise that there were costs of using the pricing mechanism. What the prices are has to be discovered. There are negotiations to be undertaken, contracts have to be drawn up, inspections have to be made, arrangements have to be made to settle disputes, and so on. These costs have come to be known as transaction costs.
Their existence implies that methods of co-ordination, alternative to the market, which are themselves costly and in various ways imperfect, may nonetheless be preferable to relying on the pricing mechanism, the only method of co-ordination normally analysed by economists.
It was avoidance of the costs of carrying out transactions through the market that could explain the existence of the firm in which the allocation of factors came about as a result of administrative decisions (and I thought it did)
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In my 1937 article, I argued that in a competitive system there would be an optimum of planning since a firm, that little planned society, could only continue to exist if it performed its co-ordination function at a lower cost than would be incurred if it were achieved by means of market transactions and also at a lower cost than this same function could be performed by another firm
.
To have an efficient economic system it is necessary not only to have markets but also areas of planning within organizations of the appropriate size. What this mix should be we find as a result of competition
the explicit introduction of transaction costs into economic analysis.
In this way, transaction costs affect not only contractual arrangements but also what goods and services are produced.
I know of only one part of economics in which transaction costs have been used to explain a major feature of the economic system and that relates to the evolution and use of money.
Exchange in a barter system requires what Jevons called "this double coincidence".
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Clearly the search for partners in exchange with suitable qualifications is likely to be very costly and will prevent many potentially beneficial exchanges from taking place. The benefit brought about by the use of money consists of a reduction in transaction costs.
The use of money also reduces transaction costs by facilitating the drawing up of contracts as well as by reducing the quantity of goods that need to be held for purposes of exchange
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Pigou's conclusion and that of most economists using standard economic theory was, and perhaps still is, that some kind of government action (usually the imposition of taxes) was required to restrain those whose actions had harmful effects on others, often termed negative externalities.
The significance to me of the Coase Theorem is that it undermines the Pigovian system. Since standard economic theory assumes transaction costs to be zero, the Coase Theorem demonstrates that the Pigovian solutions are unnecessary in these circumstances.
Of course, it does not imply, when transaction costs are positive, that government actions (such as government operation, regulation or taxation, including subsidies) could not produce a better result than relying on negotiations between individuals in the market.
Whether this would be so could be discovered not by studying imaginary governments but what real governments actually do.
My conclusion; let us study the world of positive transaction costs.
If we move from a regime of zero transaction costs to one of positive transaction costs, what becomes immediately clear is the crucial importance of the legal system in this new world.
I explained in
The Problem of Social Cost that what are traded on the market are not, as is often supposed by economists, physical entities but the rights to perform certain actions and the rights which individuals possess are established by the legal system.
While we can imagine in the hypothetical world of zero transaction costs that the parties to an exchange would negotiate to change any provision of the law which prevents them from taking whatever steps are required to increase the value of production, in the real world of positive transaction costs such a procedure would be extremely costly, and would make unprofitable, even where it was allowed, a great deal of such contracting around the law
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Because of this, the rights which individuals possess, with their duties and privileges, will be, to a large extent what the law determines
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As a result the legal system will have a profound effect on the working of the economic system and may in certain respects be said to control it
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It is obviously desirable that these rights should be assigned to those who can use them most productively and with incentives that lead them to do so and that, to discover and maintain such a distribution of rights, the costs of their transference should be low, through clarity in the law and by making the legal requirements for such transfers less onerous.
It makes little sense for economists to discuss the process of exchange without specifying the institutional setting within which the trading takes place since this affects the incentives to produce and the costs of transacting.
Second, Williamson has also pointed out that although I was correct in making the choice between organization within the firm or through the market the center piece of my analysis, I did not indicate what the factors were that determined the outcome of this choice and thus made it difficult for others to build on what is often described as a "fundamental insight". This also is true.
But the interrelationships which govern the mix of market and hierarchy, to use Williamson's terms, are extremely complex and in our present state of ignorance it will not be easy to discover what these factors are. What we need is more empirical work.
my own feeling is that the inspiration is most likely to come through the stimulus provided by the patterns, puzzles and anomalies revealed by the systematic gathering of data, particularly when the prime need is to break our existing habits of thought"*.
However, I have come to the conclusion that the main obstacle faced by researchers in industrial organization is the lack of available data on contracts and the activities of firms
.
nough.
But a scholar must be content with the knowledge that what is false in what he says will soon be exposed and, as for what is true, he can count on ultimately seeing it accepted, if only he lives long Read more at nobelprize.org
 

SAP Streamworks, collaborative decisioning

Tools to support collaborative Decision making, mediate decision processes, possibility for measurement of value in the Decision dimVal - used to be called 12 Sprints for those who tried that system. There is a limited free version - not sure how it limits number of collaborators in a space.

Amplifyd from www.sapstreamwork.com

SAP StreamWork brings together people inside or outside your organization with information for fact-based decision-making and interactive business tools for collecting feedback, strategizing, and brainstorming. Start using it for free - be up and running in minutes.
Learn more
Read the news release

Read more at www.sapstreamwork.com
 

Emergent Networks as Distributed Reputation System

Fabulous source of P2P and network theory applications to trust networks and currency flow. Must mine the pieces. Artificial credit networks and tacit group forming . So much to love here. A few more phd's to get. I've got time. URL:  videolectures.net

Ripple payment system

The concept of payment piggybacking on Trust (which inherently piggybacks on Relationships and again on Identity) is reasonable, haven't looked at the funtions of the system, which is billed as a clearing house for payments, whether conventional (Paypal) or alternative (LETS) and an alternative to the banks/Feds ACH payment clearing system.

Amplifyd from ripple-project.org

Ripple is a project to build a new kind of monetary system based on the trust present in our ordinary social and business relationships.

Read more at ripple-project.org
 

The Monopoly Gene

Via @jasonmoriber (thanks) the network seems to create monopolies, is there a rule missing that would introduce robustness in the form of competition to combat the optimization that is monopoly, given monopolies are (eventually) bad?

Amplifyd from www.wallstreetjournal.com

Internet industries develop pretty much like any other industry that depends on a network: A single firm can dominate the market if the product becomes more valuable to each user as the number of users rises. Such networks have a natural tendency to grow, and that growth leads to dominance. That was the key to Western Union's telegraph monopoly in the 19th century and to the telephone monopoly of its successor, AT&T. The Bell lines simply reached more people than anyone else's, so ever more customers came to depend on them in a feedback loop of expanding market share. The more customers they reached, the more impervious the firm became to challengers.

We wouldn't fret over monopoly so much if it came with a term limit. If Facebook's rule over social networking were somehow restricted to, say, 10 years—or better, ended the moment the firm lost its technical superiority—the very idea of monopoly might seem almost wholesome. The problem is that dominant firms are like congressional incumbents and African dictators: They rarely give up even when they are clearly past their prime. Facing decline, they do everything possible to stay in power. And that's when the rest of us suffer.

Read more at www.wallstreetjournal.com
 

FS blog, important bits to me.. 2nd try

Diigo allows fisking of annotations (commenting on each clipping separately), but doesn't provide an url with the clippings view that points just at the article (their clipping view is only in the stream), which is the whole point of clipping.. so here we are.

Amplifyd from thefinanser.co.uk
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Deposit accounts are the core of banking.

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Summary: no firm and no individual will fundamentally change the core of banking because it is built upon licences, infrastructures, agreements, global policies, governmental forces, regulatory management and more ensuring that the status quo is maintained.

which is referenced as social currency, although it’s not really as it starts and ends with the oil: banks and money.

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The bottom-line is that as we talk about the weaknesses and failures of the banking system, we are missing the point. The banking system is protected and will take decades to change, because it is like oil refining. That is why none of the services at the core heart of the banking industry: the deposit account, the checking account, the money transmission have opened up to real competition over the years.

Even with the mobile and wireless internet.
It will ... but that is like changing the oil industry.
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First you have to find an alternative to oil, then you have to convert everyone off their old vehicles to the new fuel-based alternative. More on that tomorrow.

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Meanwhile, there is plenty of scope to add functionality and enrichment to the core of banking.

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So should the focus be on building better tools upon the base of banking, rather than trying to replace the base?

Is it better to build more efficient vehicles that run on oil, rather than trying to get rid of oil?

Read more at thefinanser.co.uk
 

Shopper’s Edge

Some history first.  This business concept was created in 1989, when cell phones were still bricks that made phone calls, and rfid was a baby.  Collision was a problem with rfid signals and experiments with smart shopping carts and self checkouts non existent.  Bernd Nurnberger @cocreatr wanted to discuss it, so a description of the Shopper's Edge business concept follows.  Many of the parts of this idea have since been created and tested. The cell phone is now the natural choice for a hand held unit, mobile payments are coming into prime time, and collision issues in wireless technologies are being slowly addressed.   Customers are acclimatised to self checkout, and the perception of human nature has improved.

___

Pitch:

Shopper's Edge is a system to eliminate the cashier supported retail checkout procedure, reducing retailers highest staffing cost, significantly reducing slippage, and eliminating several service failure perceptions in the customer.

Scenarios:

John walks into your big box hardware store looking for a widget.   With a glance at his phone he sees where in the store it is located (including if it is mis-shelved or being promoted), and follows the turn directions displayed on the phone.  Along the way related items are displayed as advertisements or animations, (based on John's purchase history he's out of flat head nails, and they are almost on the way).  The system routes him that way and proposes the product right before he passes them. "Are you out of nails?  They're ahead on the left 5..4...3..steps.

Sam made a list at home of the groceries she needed to pick up.  As she walks from her car she sees a welcome splash screen and a display of the store and her ideal route to pick up the items on her list.  Recipes are suggested and one she likes shows up, selecting it, the items she needs for it are displayed, she deselects a few she already has then accepts.  The items are added to her list and her route updated accordingly.  As Sam walks through the store her screen lights up with relevant offers when she is in the vicinity.  When she picks up her brand name peas the cost of the store's branded peas is shown, would she like those instead? An arrow points her to their location on the shelf to her right.

Discussion:

Shopper's Edge provides retailers with a number of benefits:

1. Eliminate Checkout: Customers will make purchases with their cell phones

2. Automate Inventory:  Stock is wanded without even being pulled from its boxes, the system scanning the smart tags on products added by suppliers; inventory location in the store is tracked by the system's triangulation system, and inventory status updated when a customer purchases an item.

3. Reduce slippage: A normal state change for a tag is from 'active' to 'purchased', if it simply disappears in successive scans of inventory by the system, security is directed toward it's last known location immediately, scans can be done continuously

4. Dynamic pricing: A retailer can price product based on its time on shelf, due dates, or current real time demand

5. Eliminate shelf pricing: no prices need be displayed, they are provided through the system api to customer hand helds

6. Point of Purchase Advertising:  influence the key ratio of inhouse brand sales to national brand sales at the decision point with a well placed message

7. Real time market research:  determine ideal locations, effective offers, and sell this information to suppliers, use data on real time shopping habits across customers to allow the system to know that everyone is buying shovels, traction grit and salt (inferring a snow storm) so suggest the missing item to another client with a shovel and traction grit.  The system needn't understand 'there's a snowstorm' and may well find corellations that human beings would have difficulty understanding

Benefits to customers include:

1. No more lining up to check out, at a person or a automated self checkout system

2. Item location services

3. Potential for cruelty and environmental ratings of products, social ratings, real time assessments (try the beef!) or warnings (hey, check out url the deal on toilet paper online!)

Problems to solve:

a. final touches on mobile payments, finesse the ecosystem issues

b. collision issues and distance reading on current generation of smart tags (RFID)

c. system ability to read every item in inventory every second continuously

d. system must be ROCK SOLID, space program grade code

e. tamper proofing of smart tags

f. hacker issues

g. bulk items, produce, present unique problems

h. work with retailers to redeploy staff in ways that augment customer experience while still enjoying savings

____

As memory is failing me, I may have missed some points - the original is pre-web and locked tight in an ibm ps2 with a huge 20mb drive and greyscale (an upgrade) monitor, on word perfect on 3.5 inch (modern!) floppy disks (not really floppy anymore but terminology apes the old).  It's not quite groovy but it's definitely not hype or tight.  Anyhow, I'm not dusting that puppy off so this is all you get.  If you want an ibm ps2 with monitor, original disks and an impact printer, do let me know.

2 or 3 things you should know about Social Networks before registering yourself on FarmVille or… “De puta madre!

Odd little post but a good romp through graph theory URL:  chemoton.wordpress.com

Umair Haque - Finance 2.0

nice romp through the issues

Amplifyd from blogs.hbr.org

Macro and microcurrencies. A currency tied to national interests determined by a political elite? That's so 20th century 16th century. A better financial system needs better currencies. Finance 2,0 will be built on microcurrencies and macrocurrencies: currencies which operate hyperlocally and transnationally. Why? Because people shouldn't have to bear collective responsibility for bankers looting or regulators cahooting. In the 21st century, the quiet tyranny of economic collective responsibility is intellectually bankrupt: it is fundamentally unjust, deeply inefficient, and vastly value-destructive.

Edge funds. An edge fund is the opposite of a hedge fund. Where hedge funds are opaque, edge funds are transparent. Where hedge funds are closed, edge funds are open. Where hedge funds are run for near-term gains, edge funds are in it for the long run. Where hedge funds create artificial book value, edge funds create value that accrues to real people and society. Where hedge funds focus on long and short transactions, edge funds focus on relationships. Think Marketocracy on steroids.

Here are nine paths to igniting the next financial revolution.

Social banks. Despite what marketers tell you, banks do not exist to maximize profits. They exist to maximize the safety of deposits. We've been taken for a very expensive ride. Next-generation banks will be structured as social enterprises — because the incentives to safeguard deposits and reinvest profits for the common good perfectly converge to a dominant strategy for long-run value creation.

Fair markets. Markets are free like a shark is a fish. Anyone can play — but only at the risk of being manipulated, looted, and defrauded by the deepest-pocketed. The anonymous arms-length transactions orthodox economics lionizes are, in practice, just a hyperefficient mechanism for front-running, predatory trading, and bid rigging. Next-generation markets aren't just free: they're fair. They are markets where information about reputation, reliability, and relationship thickness are hardwired into the DNA.

Stakeholder communities. Institutional investors are so 20th century. Centralizing control over our biggest corporations in the hands of a bunch of old dudes asleep at the wheel was as good an idea as the spork: interesting in theory, useless in practice. Tomorrow's radical innovators are already updating corporate governance for the 21st century, by letting communities of stakeholders shape managerial decision-making. Think mega-Etsy.

Whisper bullhorns. Why is trading such a great business? Because traders have access to info that you don't. Why can't everyone get in on the whisper circuit that powers prop desk profits? Because no radical innovator has taken on the challenge yet of amplifying the secretive whisper circuit into a blaring bullhorn. But imagine if the rumours that drive share prices up and down on trading desks were Twitterfied. The result would be a financial revolution: the market power Big Trading enjoys would vaporize faster than you can say "insider info."

Googlizing financial instruments. What business is Wall Street really in? The business of hoarding information: to seek a so-called informational edge. Of course, markets don't work if everybody's hiding info — they only work when people are revealing it. Google can help me find a tennis racquet, Match can help me find a date, and Last.fm can help me find some tracks to rip — but who can help me find a better place to put my cash that effortlessly? No one. And that's a massive reason why we're stuck with a 1.0 financial economy.

Anti-ratings. Your credit is rated mercilessly. But does anyone rate lenders — not to mention brokers, banks, and investors? Today's crisis would have been far less severe if consumers had access to knowledge about who was a trustworthy lender — and who was going to sell them the financial equivalent of a roadside bomb. Credit ratings alone cannot create more efficient financial markets — doing so requires better information about both buyers and sellers of every kind of financial product.

Open source modeling. Every bank built the same models. Every bank built the same flawed models. Every bank built the same flawed models on similarly erroneous assumptions. How dumb is that? Incredibly. Unleashing the power of open source to vaporize this black hole of incompetence is going to be a tremendously powerful path to innovation. The peer review, voluntary contribution, and always-on negotiation at the heart of the open source model create powerful incentives for quality — which is exactly what the hare-brained quants at banks lacked.

Read more at blogs.hbr.org